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Yeah there is no was to tell what any of the weapons are just by looking at the bag unless they are really long or really fat, which the shotgun is neither. So I think Shogo picked the bag on accident and like Laurinda said already I think he went back because he weapon sucked which potentionally might have been the megaphone since Yukiko would have been the next to leave.

As for Shogo getting a shotgun in his previous game, I highly doubt it because the odds of getting the shotgun twice in a row is probably the same as being selected for the program twice and then again the odd of being selected for the program and then getting the shotgun again is even slimmer. So I say chance. Besides in the movie flashback we see no shotgun on Shogo just a gun and like what...27 dead bodies lol. In the Manga he also has a gun when he is going on killer rampage but I can't remember if the gun was his first weapon or if it was a GPS (No just looked he got the GPS after his like 8th kill). As for the novel I don't think we ever find out his weapon in the first program but they could have I don't remember if they mentioned it in that chapter.